After months of relentless Avian Influenza activity across Indiana’s bird populations, reports of the deadly virus are finally on the decline—and biologists say warming weather may be the unexpected hero.
The Indiana Department of Natural Resources (DNR) is tracking a sharp drop-off in daily bird flu reports, according to biologist Eli Fleace, who says the dangerous H5N1 strain is following a familiar seasonal pattern.
Winter Surge Now Fading
“It’s a very noticeable decline,” Fleace told reporters on Monday. “In the thick of winter, I was seeing anywhere from 20 to 50 reports every single day.”
That number has since plummeted. Over the past 30 days, Fleace says he’s received fewer than 10 reports per day—and only a fraction of those have actually been linked to the H5N1 virus.
This follows a trend the DNR began noticing last year. The virus, which can be devastating to both wild birds and commercial poultry flocks, tends to spike in colder months and fall off once spring temperatures rise.
Bird Flu by the Numbers
To put this seasonal pattern in perspective, here’s what Fleace’s case tracking has shown over the past few months:
| Month | Avg. Daily Reports | % Likely Avian Flu |
|---|---|---|
| January | 30–50 | High |
| February | 20–40 | Moderate to High |
| March | 10–20 | Low to Moderate |
| April (to date) | <10 | Very Low |
Most birds being tested recently have come back negative for H5N1.
Fleace emphasized, “Since April started, I haven’t seen more than a few positive cases—and even those are questionable.”
A Virus with a Seasonal Footprint
While the decline is encouraging, it doesn’t mean Indiana is completely out of the woods.
“This particular strain—H5N1—first showed up in late 2022,” Fleace explained. “We quickly noticed it seemed to follow a seasonal rhythm. It would flare up in winter and spring, and then vanish during the summer months.”
That observation has since held true over multiple years.
The virus seems to retreat as temperatures rise—though why that happens isn’t fully understood.
What DNR Is Watching For
Despite the drop in cases, Fleace and his team are maintaining cautious optimism.
“There’s not much we can do in terms of prevention for wild birds,” he said. “But we’re staying ready. We’ll continue testing select species and monitoring unusual die-offs.”
Biologists at DNR are focusing on:
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Raptors and scavengers like hawks and vultures
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Waterfowl and shorebirds
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Corvids (crows, ravens, and jays)
These species tend to show early signs of outbreaks, making them prime targets for surveillance.
What You Should Do If You Spot a Sick Bird
Though the general public can’t test for the virus, Hoosiers play an important role in early detection.
The DNR asks residents to report:
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Birds acting lethargic, dizzy, or uncoordinated
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Groups of dead birds found in close proximity
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Birds with nasal discharge or unusual posture
You can report sick or dead birds through the DNR Wildlife Reporting portal
It’s not just about protecting wildlife—Avian Influenza can sometimes jump species, posing a small but serious risk to farm animals and, in rare cases, humans.
Looking Ahead to Fall and Winter 2025
For now, the trend is positive. But DNR officials are already thinking about the next cold season.
“We know this virus doesn’t just disappear,” Fleace said. “It comes back. So we’re building our capacity to respond quickly when it does.”
That includes collecting data on bird migration patterns, partnering with wildlife rehab centers, and testing birds opportunistically throughout the year.
