This weekend in Fort Wayne might feel like a classic Midwest summer: warm, sticky, and filled with just enough suspense to keep everyone refreshing the radar. While temperatures are climbing into familiar July territory, a few pesky rainstorms could be lurking in the wings, threatening to mess with backyard barbecues, baseball games, and riverfront events.

According to WPTA’s First Alert Meteorologist Caleb Saylor, the region is stuck in what he called “a summer toss-up” — the kind of pattern where storms don’t exactly RSVP but still show up anyway.

Saturday: Heat Builds, But So Do Storm Chances

Saturday morning should start off fairly mild — if a bit muggy. But as the day goes on, things might get interesting.

Saylor’s forecast suggests increasing instability in the atmosphere, especially by late morning into the early afternoon. That means the heat and moisture in the air could mix just enough to spark isolated thunderstorms, particularly around 2 to 6 p.m.

“We’re not expecting a washout,” he said. “But we could see scattered showers or pop-up storms, especially where the sun heats things up quickest.”

One sentence is enough sometimes.

That spells potential disruption for outdoor events like the 3Rivers Federal Credit Union’s Pedal, Paddle, Play, which kicks off at 10 a.m. and moves toward Promenade Park festivities by midday. Organizers haven’t issued any weather adjustments — yet — but eyes will definitely be on the skies.

Timing the Threat: When to Watch Out

While no widespread severe weather is forecast, the pattern remains unpredictable enough that quick storms could still blow through parts of the region.

What makes this weekend tricky is the storm timing. Here’s a look at the latest rough estimates based on Saylor’s update:

• Saturday morning: Mostly dry, partly sunny, highs in the low 80s

• Saturday afternoon: Chance of pop-up showers or isolated t-storms

• Saturday evening: Storm risk lowers, temps stay humid and warm

• Sunday morning: Cloudy start, slight rain chance

• Sunday afternoon: Isolated showers possible again, especially southeast of Fort Wayne

So basically, carry an umbrella, but don’t cancel your plans just yet.

What’s Behind the Forecast? Blame the Upper-Level Winds

It’s not just surface heat making things unstable — it’s what’s going on higher up in the sky that’s really the wildcard.

Saylor explained that a weak upper-level disturbance is drifting across the region. These systems aren’t especially strong, but they’re just enough to tip the atmosphere into storm mode when paired with July humidity.

And because there’s no dominant high-pressure system to keep things stable, “we’re basically in a holding pattern,” he said.

Add in a stubborn breeze from the southwest, and it’s like throwing kindling into an already warm fire. Boom — sudden storm.

It’s Not All Bad: Some Welcome Rain in Dry Spots

Not every cloud is a spoiler. Some parts of northeast Indiana have been flirting with drought conditions. A light rain — even a short one — could help keep lawns green and farmers breathing a little easier.

Here’s how rainfall has stacked up in Fort Wayne recently:

It’s not a full-blown drought, but the region is drier than usual. So while an afternoon sprinkle might frustrate festivalgoers, it’s actually not the worst outcome for the soil.

What Locals Are Saying — And Doing

People aren’t panicking. Yet.

“I’m still planning to hit the trails with my kids on Saturday,” said Morgan, a mother of two from southwest Fort Wayne. “If it rains, it rains. We’ll deal.”

A vendor prepping for the Promenade Park event had similar vibes. “I’ve got a tent and plastic tablecloths. Unless it’s a lightning storm, we’re showing up.”

But that doesn’t mean people aren’t watching closely. Fort Wayne’s tendency for fast-forming storms in July has trained residents to keep one eye on the sky — and one thumb on the weather app.

Planning Tips If You’re Headed Outdoors

Even if the forecast is wobbly, the weekend still looks mostly manageable — if you plan smart.

Here are a few practical tips if you’re spending time outside:

• Avoid river or lake activities between 2 and 6 p.m., especially if thunder is in the forecast

• Download a radar app like MyRadar or WeatherBug to track pop-ups in real time

• Bring breathable layers — humidity will be high even without rain

• Don’t cancel plans, but do prep for quick shelter options

• Watch for updated alerts from WPTA and other local meteorologists on X (formerly Twitter)

Sometimes it’s just about staying flexible. You could have sun and a storm in the same hour. It’s Indiana, after all.

Sunday Looks Similar — But Slightly Cooler

Sunday won’t be a carbon copy, but it’s close. Temperatures dip just a couple degrees into the upper 70s or low 80s. That may help reduce thunderstorm energy, but it’s still not zero percent.

“Sunday’s storm chance is more dependent on leftover cloud cover,” Saylor noted. “If it stays cloudy, rain’s less likely. But if the sun breaks through early? All bets are off.”

If you’re planning family time, maybe keep the picnic but skip the long hike. And again — keep that phone charged.