With the ongoing dry conditions on the Western Slope, the region faces an increased risk of wildfires this coming season. The lack of moisture, especially during the winter months, may exacerbate fire activity in the months ahead.
Drier Conditions Set the Stage for a Challenging Fire Season
The typical wildfire season on the Western Slope begins in late spring to early summer, but recent weather patterns are already raising concerns. The key to managing wildfire risk is ensuring that vegetation doesn’t dry out too quickly, and a healthy snowpack during winter plays a vital role in keeping moisture levels up.
Matthew Aleksa, a Meteorologist for the National Weather Service, emphasized how important the snowpack is for overall water usage and moisture levels. “The mountain snowpack is very beneficial for our overall water amount and moisture here because all of the snow in the mountains will melt. And then that water runs down into the rivers and then helps to fill the basins and reservoirs below,” Aleksa explained.
Unfortunately, the current snowpack is falling short of what’s needed. For most areas of the Western Slope, the snowpack is only about 80% of normal. Southwest Colorado is faring worse, with some areas reporting snowpack levels as low as 50% of what is typical. The next few months don’t offer much hope for a shift in these dry conditions.
The Impact of Low Snowpack on Wildfire Risk
Aleksa provided insight into the situation, stating, “The next couple of weeks could be a little more active across the north in terms of more snow to build up that snowpack. But overall, as we head into March and April, it does have a greater trend towards below-normal precipitation. So drier outlook there.”
A lack of moisture during the winter months is not ideal, and historically, drier winters have been linked to more active wildfire seasons. While it’s difficult to predict the exact scale of fire activity, there is a noticeable trend between dry winters and heightened wildfire risks.
La Niña and its Role in the Dry Outlook
Chief Meteorologist Stephen Bowers also weighed in, explaining that the formation of La Niña in the Pacific Ocean is likely contributing to a drier-than-normal spring. This means that even though there could be a few snowy weeks ahead, the overall outlook points toward less precipitation, further raising concerns about wildfire potential.
While spring and summer rains, especially from the monsoon season, can help mitigate wildfire risk, the extended dry period will make it harder for the region to build the necessary moisture levels to combat fire hazards.
The situation is still unfolding, but experts agree that residents of the Western Slope should remain alert and prepared for an unpredictable wildfire season.
