SpaceX Stock Rallies 3.7% as a 911 Million Share Unlock Nears

SpaceX shares jumped 3.7% Tuesday, their best one-day gain since June 30, snapping a seven-session skid that had wiped out 21% of the stock’s value. The rally added $48.96 billion in market value in a single session and pushed the company’s market capitalization to $1.639 trillion, according to Dow Jones Market Data, enough to reclaim the title of seventh-largest U.S. company by market cap from Meta Platforms.

The timing matters more than the bounce itself. The gains came a day after SpaceX locked in Aug. 4 as its second-quarter earnings date, an announcement that also set the calendar for the biggest supply test the stock has faced since its record-breaking June debut: an unlock of up to 911.5 million insider shares arriving two trading days later, while the stock still sits below where it first listed.

Seven Losing Sessions End With SpaceX’s Best Day Since June

Tuesday’s session had the shape of a classic oversold snapback. Shares surged as much as 8.4% intraday before settling into a 3.7% close, the kind of one-day move the stock hadn’t produced since the end of June.

• 3.7% – Tuesday’s closing gain, SpaceX’s biggest one-day rise since June 30, per Dow Jones Market Data
• $48.96 billion – market value added in a single trading session
• $1.639 trillion – SpaceX’s closing market cap, good for seventh largest in the U.S.
• 21% – how much the stock had shed across the seven-session losing streak that just ended

The move also flipped a ranking. SpaceX had ceded the number seven spot by market cap to Meta Platforms on Monday and took it back within a day.

Macquarie’s Case for Buying the Dip

Macquarie analysts led by Paul Golding told clients in a Monday note that the pullback looked overdone given the company’s underlying business hadn’t changed. The firm rates SpaceX at outperform with a $250 price target, which implies room to more than double from Monday’s closing price of $119.85 a share.

We see the pullback presenting an opportunity to gain exposure to the leader across launch, communications and space infrastructure.

Golding, Macquarie’s analyst covering the stock, argued that the seven-day slide had little to do with SpaceX’s fundamentals and more to do with sentiment around a young, thinly floated stock. Not every desk framed the moment the same way.

• Macquarie (Paul Golding): calls the selloff a buying opportunity, rates shares outperform with a $250 target
• Clear Street Research: told clients in a July 7 note to watch for volatility from earnings and the lockup overhang hitting at once
• 22V Research (Jeff Jacobson): estimates the tradable float could grow by roughly 900% as unlocks proceed, though volatility may ease once the market absorbs the new supply

One Announcement Starts Two Different Clocks

SpaceX confirmed the reporting date in a post on its official account on X, the same one referenced across trading desks once the note went out. The company confirmed its Aug. 4 earnings date without fanfare, but the disclosure carries weight most earnings-date announcements don’t.

Under the terms set at SpaceX’s IPO, the second full trading day after that report, Aug. 6, is when up to 911.5 million Class A shares held by employees and early investors become eligible for sale. Under certain conditions, as much as 37% of insider shares tied to the standard 180-day lockup could be freed up during August alone. Stock held by chief executive Elon Musk and a handful of other insiders sits under a longer restriction.

Clear Street Research analysts flagged the collision of catalysts more than two weeks before SpaceX even named a date.

Investors should monitor this event for potential volatility driven by both earnings performance and the supply overhang from the expiring lock-up.

How Many SpaceX Shares Could Hit the Market in August?

Up to 911.5 million shares, roughly 20% of the locked-up total, become sellable unconditionally on Aug. 6. A further 455.8 million shares, another 10%, unlock only if SPCX closes at least 30% above its $135 IPO price for five of the ten trading days before earnings, a bar the stock isn’t close to clearing at current levels. Two additional 7% tranches follow in the weeks after.

Add it up and insiders could hold the right to sell as much as 44% of SpaceX’s stock by early September, according to 22V Research strategist Jeff Jacobson. Musk’s own stake is locked up separately and for longer, so his shares aren’t part of these early tranches.

Still Trading Below Its Own Debut Price

SpaceX priced its June 12 IPO, the largest in U.S. history, at $135 a share and raised $75 billion. Shares opened trading at $150, closed the first day at $160.95, a 19% pop, and within days touched an intraday high of $225.64 with a closing high of $211.39 on June 16.

None of that lasted. By July 15, the stock had slid to an intraday low of $132.15 before closing at $135.27, essentially back at its offer price after a roughly one-month round trip. It kept falling from there, closing at $119.85 by July 20, the low point of the seven-session skid. Even after Tuesday’s bounce, shares remain below the $135 price at which SpaceX sold stock to the public two months ago, a rare position for a company still worth well over a trillion dollars.

Part of the volatility traces to how little of SpaceX actually trades. The company floated less than 5% of its outstanding shares at listing, and a Starship abort that first pulled shares under their offer price showed how sharply a scarce float can react to bad news. When Reuters ran the numbers last week, the 911.5 million shares due to unlock were worth about $123 billion, more than the roughly $86 billion of SpaceX stock currently available to trade on the Nasdaq.

Facebook and Rivian Offer Two Different Warnings

SpaceX isn’t the first hot IPO to run into a lockup wall, and history is genuinely split on what happens next.

Facebook’s first post-IPO lockup expired in August 2012, freeing about 271 million shares. The stock fell more than 6% that day to what was then an all-time low, roughly half its IPO price. Facebook, of course, eventually turned out fine and became one of the decade’s best-performing large caps.

Rivian’s experience cuts the other way. When its 180-day lockup expired in May 2022, shares plunged as Ford moved to sell part of its stake, and Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said at the time that the stock had been “a debacle since the IPO.” Rivian kept sliding for months afterward and never reclaimed its offer price.

SpaceX’s bulls point out one difference: unlike Rivian at that stage, SpaceX’s Starlink connectivity segment generated $11.4 billion of revenue and $4.4 billion of operating income last year, with segment income more than doubling year over year. Whether that cash generation offsets losses elsewhere in the business is a question the Aug. 4 report will start to answer.

Thursday’s Starship Relaunch Raises the Stakes Further

Layered on top of the earnings and lockup calendar is a rocket that hasn’t yet flown. SpaceX plans another attempt at its 13th Starship test flight on Thursday, a full week after four of the Super Heavy booster’s 33 Raptor 3 engines failed to ignite at the last second on July 16, forcing a scrub just as the countdown reached zero.

Musk said at the time that two engines needed to be swapped out before SpaceX would trust the vehicle to fly, and crews rolled the affected booster, designated Booster 20, back for inspection. Shares fell 5.4% in the immediate aftermath of that scrub. The Federal Aviation Administration, the agency overseeing commercial launch licensing, had only just closed its review of a separate booster failure from May’s Flight 12 and cleared SpaceX to proceed, provided all safety requirements are met.

This flight matters because Flight 12 exposed real gaps in the newest Starship design, called V3. Flight 13 needs to answer three questions Flight 12 couldn’t:

• Can the Super Heavy booster stick a pinpoint splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico, something it failed to do in May
• Can Starship complete a Raptor engine relight in space, a step SpaceX skipped last time after losing an engine during ascent
• Can a set of onboard satellites, carrying external cameras for the first time, self-inspect the ship’s heat shield in flight

Proving Starship reliable carries stakes beyond one test flight. SpaceX is under pressure to ready the vehicle for a NASA flight next year tied to the next moon landing, and the engine swap crews made after the scrub is the first proof point investors get before the earnings and lockup dates arrive. A clean flight Thursday would give bulls one more data point heading into August. A repeat failure would hand skeptics a case just as insider supply prepares to expand.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is SpaceX’s stock ticker, and how volatile has it been?

SpaceX trades on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. The stock joined the Nasdaq-100 in early July under a fast-tracked inclusion rule, pulling in a wave of passive index buying that has added to its swings on top of an unusually small public float.

Is SpaceX profitable as a company?

SpaceX doesn’t disclose full segment profitability publicly, but its Starlink connectivity business generated $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating income in 2025, adding another $3.3 billion of revenue in the first quarter of 2026 alone. The company’s broader consolidated results, which include other ventures, have run negative.

When can Elon Musk sell his SpaceX shares?

Musk and a small group of other insiders are subject to a longer lockup than the standard 180-day restriction covering most employees and early investors. SpaceX hasn’t disclosed a specific date for when that longer lockup lifts.

Could the August share unlock get delayed or reduced?

The 911.5 million share tranche is unconditional and tied only to the timing of the earnings report, not the stock price, so it isn’t expected to shrink. The separate 455.8 million share tranche only unlocks if shares trade well above current levels, which looks unlikely for now.

What happens to SpaceX’s float by the end of 2026?

Beyond the August and September tranches, a final broad lockup covering rank-and-file employees is set to expire around Dec. 8, 2026, which would push SpaceX’s tradable float toward roughly 40% of the company, excluding Musk’s separately restricted stake.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and isn’t investment advice. SpaceX stock is a recent, thinly floated listing with elevated volatility risk, and readers should consult a licensed financial adviser before making trading decisions. Figures are accurate as of publication on July 22, 2026.