The National Weather Service (NWS) could be facing budget cuts that may impact its ability to provide life-saving forecasts. Recent actions by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have raised alarms among meteorologists and the wider scientific community, as concerns grow over potential funding reductions to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its subsidiary agencies.
How DOGE’s Investigation Raised Alarm Bells
Earlier this month, DOGE officials reportedly accessed IT systems at NOAA, with a focus on reviewing materials related to Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) policies. While the official purpose of the investigation remains unclear, its implications are becoming increasingly worrisome for those working within NOAA and NWS.
Former NWS meteorologist Michael Lewis, who remains in close contact with current employees, says that there is growing concern that this move is a precursor to budget and personnel cuts.
“We’ve worked within budget constraints before, but this time it feels different. This isn’t just about saving money—it’s about people losing their jobs,” Lewis said.
A Budget That Saves Lives
The National Weather Service operates on an annual budget of approximately $1.36 billion, according to NOAA’s fiscal notes. When broken down, this figure equates to roughly $4 per American each year—a modest sum considering the critical services it provides.
The impact of NWS extends far beyond daily weather forecasts:
- Tornado warnings broadcast by local meteorologists originate from NWS alerts.
- The radar data used in weather apps and news reports is sourced directly from the agency.
- During hazardous environmental events, such as chemical spills or wildfires, NWS meteorologists assist emergency responders in predicting the affected areas.
In essence, NWS plays an indispensable role in public safety, disaster prevention, and economic stability.
Economic Value of the NWS
Budget cuts are not new, but the approach being taken now is causing unease among those familiar with past fiscal adjustments. Lewis argues that the NWS is more than just an expenditure—it is an investment. A 2024 study by the American Meteorological Society estimated that for every $1 spent on the NWS in 2021, the economic return was approximately $74.
Table: Estimated Economic Returns of the National Weather Service
| Year | NWS Budget (Billions) | Estimated Economic Return (Billions) | Return on Investment (ROI) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $1.2 | $88.8 | 74:1 |
| 2022 | $1.3 | $96.2 | 74:1 |
| 2023 | $1.35 | $99.9 | 74:1 |
This level of return underscores the importance of continued investment in weather services, not just for safety but also for economic growth.
The Role of Technology and Human Expertise
Advancements in AI and automation have undeniably improved forecasting accuracy, allowing meteorologists to process vast amounts of data in real time. However, Lewis warns that technology cannot fully replace human expertise.
“AI is great. Automation has made our job easier, but at the end of the day, you need people to deliver forecasts, interpret complex situations, and communicate effectively with the public,” he said.
He stressed that without human oversight, the risk of misinterpretation increases, potentially leading to misinformed decisions during severe weather events.
What Happens Next?
Lawmakers are now being urged to weigh the potential consequences of budget reductions before any final decisions are made. A letter from Democratic members of the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology has been sent to NOAA, demanding answers regarding DOGE’s involvement and the potential impacts on the agency’s operations.
Lewis encourages the public to engage in discussions about the value of NWS and similar agencies. “If you care about what we do—about safety, about accurate forecasts—then reach out to your elected officials and make your voice heard,” he said.
As uncertainty looms over NOAA and NWS, the question remains: will cost-cutting efforts jeopardize the critical role these agencies play in protecting lives and livelihoods?
