S&P 500 Futures Push Higher as Wall Street Extends Weekly Rally

Wall Street futures pointed higher Monday after a record week that pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average within sight of 53,000 for the first time. S&P 500 futures gained 0.32% and Nasdaq-100 futures advanced 0.83% before the bell in Monday’s live blog tracking the futures action; Dow futures added 20 points, or 0.04%. The benchmark S&P 500 closed last week at 7,483.24, up 1.8% for the week and the largest one-week point and percentage gain since the week ending May 8, per Dow Jones market data.

The strength came with a clear split. Financials, Healthcare, and Industrials all closed at fresh weekly all-time highs, while the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) shed 3.2% for a second straight weekly loss. Traders this week will also weigh the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes, the first under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, due Wednesday.

A Record Week, with a Catch

The Dow climbed nearly 2% last week, putting it within striking distance of 53,000, a level it has never reached. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also posted sharp gains, with the Nasdaq up 2.1%. All three gauges closed the week with gains, per Dow Jones market data.

The headline rally, though, came with a sharp divide under the surface. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell 3.2% last week for a second consecutive losing week, even as Financials, Healthcare, and Industrials closed at new weekly all-time highs. That split has prompted fund managers to rotate exposure away from chipmakers and into the cyclical and rate-sensitive groups that lagged earlier in the year. Mark Newton, head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat, framed the shift in plain terms: “The broadening in sector rotation is a big positive, with Financials, Healthcare, and Industrials all closing at new weekly all-time highs this week and more than offsetting the consolidation in Semis.”

• Dow futures (Mon premarket): +20 points, +0.04%
• S&P 500 futures (Mon premarket): +0.32%
• Nasdaq-100 futures (Mon premarket): +0.83%
• S&P 500 last week: 7,483.24
• VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) last week: -3.2% (second straight losing week)

Where the Rotation Is Doing the Work

Newton’s broader argument is that the rotation is doing the heavy lifting the semis used to. The chip sell-off has pulled the VanEck Semiconductor ETF down for two weeks running, yet the index-level damage has been small because the other sectors that absorbed the flows are themselves at records. Financials, Healthcare, and Industrials all closed the week at fresh all-time highs.

Newton stops short of calling semis “broken.” He wrote that the chip decline is a short-term headwind that favors owning other sectors while it settles, and the broader indices are absorbing the move.

While the Semi decline is a short-term headwind that favors owning other sectors while it settles, it has not dented the broader indices.

Newton is the head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat, and the line is from a research note cited in the Monday market wrap. The composition of the rotation is also unusual. Investors have historically rotated from growth into defensives when rates rose; this time the move has gone into cyclicals, with Industrials leading the new-high list alongside Healthcare and Financials. A second consecutive week of SMH losses now coincides with the new highs in those three groups.

One open question is how long the other sectors can keep absorbing flows that were once the AI trade’s natural home. The S&P 500 closed last week about 7% below Newton’s mid-August target of 8,000, a level that would require the broadening to keep running. The risk is that the rotation stalls while semis take a breather, removing the broadening that has lifted the index.

The AI Trade Is Getting Heavy

Yardeni is the most prominent voice warning that the AI trade is starting to buckle. In a fresh note on whether AI infrastructure will pay off, the president of Yardeni Research said Wall Street is suffering from “AI fatigue” because investors are “not convinced that the huge investments in AI infrastructure will earn a good rate of return.”

He laid out three specific concerns in the same note: the risk of excess capacity as more AI providers come online, increasing competition from China, and a fall in token prices that has unsettled providers even as overall usage has grown. Quantum Strategy made the same trade in reverse, with a note early Monday saying it is “Out of AI (except China) and the Magnificent 7” and going long sectors that benefit from AI deployment, “with particular emphasis on China.” Both flag the AI infrastructure build-out as the central question, with different geographies. The divergence in the calls is the geography, not the thesis.

They are unsettled by the decline in token prices, though the impact of that on providers’ revenues might be offset by greater usage.

Yardeni is the president of Yardeni Research, and the comments are from a research note cited in the Monday market wrap. The shift is showing up in performance, with the chip ETF logging its second consecutive weekly loss while the same three cyclicals hit new all-time highs. A second consecutive SMH loss now coincides with new highs in Financials, Healthcare, and Industrials.

The Fed Repricing That Hasn’t Settled

The other shoe hanging over Monday’s session is the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes, due Wednesday. The June 16-17 meeting was Chair Kevin Warsh’s first at the helm, and the FOMC voted 12-0 to hold the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent in the Fed’s June 17 policy statement. The committee’s statement pointed to “solid” economic activity, “strong” productivity and capital investment, and an unemployment rate that “has changed little,” while flagging that inflation “remains elevated” in part because of supply shocks including energy. The market has already moved a long way on where it thinks the Fed is heading. Fed funds futures now imply 1.5 rate hikes over the next 12 months, a “sharp reversal” from the deep-cut pricing of the past three years, per Yardeni.

A pre-minutes read of the new chair’s debut on Warsh’s first meeting leaning hawkish on inflation had argued that several participants were already projecting a rate hike in 2026. The market’s read has gone the other way, pricing in more tightening than even the dot plot implied. That gap will narrow or widen after Wednesday’s minutes.

Asia Opens Mixed as the Dollar Presses Its Weight

Asia-Pacific markets opened mixed on Monday as investors weighed the AI rotation and braced for the Fed minutes. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.7%, the broader Topix added 0.2%, South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.91%, and the small-cap Kosdaq declined 1%. Chinese markets opened in the green, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 0.4% and the CSI 300 adding 0.2%. India was up in early trade, with the Nifty 50 index gaining 0.5% and the rupee flat at 95.23 against the dollar.

The Japanese yen was trading at 161.54 per U.S. dollar after weakening to a 40-year low against the greenback last week. South Korea’s won slipped around 0.25% to 1,532.82 per dollar after the currency began 24-hour trading on Monday.

The dollar’s strength is doing some of the work in the regional equity split: a weaker yen has been a tailwind for Japanese exporters, and the Bank of Japan has so far refrained from intervention at 161.54. The Kospi’s 0.91% drop is the sharper signal of the day, even with the won starting 24-hour trading on Monday. China is going the other way, with the CSI 300 up 0.2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 0.4%, and one firm rotating explicitly toward Chinese AI exposure and away from U.S. tech leaders. India’s reform momentum, per Bank of America’s Friday note, is a shift toward “structural resilience” with 18 measures across tax, labor, energy security, manufacturing, banking and foreign capital access.

Cross-Border Deals and a $15 Billion Space Bet

Beyond the macro tape, three stories from outside the US market set the Monday backdrop, in British media, U.S. defense, and South Korean space. The price tags run into the billions, with the largest a $3.5 billion defense deal and a $15 billion satellite plan. The common thread is consolidation, with a major broadcaster being absorbed, a defense contractor being bought, and a satellite build-out being funded.

ITV has successfully evolved, said Carolyn McCall, CEO of ITV plc, with the launch and scaling of ITVX and the development of ITV Studios into a major force in the global content market. Sky’s chief executive, Dana Strong, called the same deal a “defining moment for British media.”

On the Lockheed side, the company is the front-runner to acquire Ultra Maritime from private equity firm Advent International. The target specializes in anti-submarine technology, including radar, electronic warfare systems, and torpedo defense countermeasures. A deal could be announced as early as this week, per the Financial Times.

In Seoul, both Hanwha names jumped on a Canadian submarine decision expected before Prime Minister Mark Carney heads to a NATO summit. Hanwha Ocean rose over 12% on the contract hopes; Hanwha Systems climbed over 13% on a separate 20 trillion won (about $15 billion) satellite investment plan unveiled Friday. The space push sits inside a broader 55 trillion won Hanwha Group plan for space and defense AI by 2040. Hanwha cited Morgan Stanley’s view that the global space economy is set to grow over 1 trillion by 2040 as a tailwind.

• Sky (Comcast-owned): to buy ITV’s media and entertainment unit for £1.6 billion ($2.13 billion): £1.2 billion in cash plus Love Productions and a possible £200 million earn-out
• Lockheed Martin: leading the race to acquire Ultra Maritime from Advent International for roughly $3.5 billion, with Guggenheim and JPMorgan advising the seller; deal could be announced this week, per Financial Times
• Hanwha Systems: up on a 20 trillion won ($15 billion) satellite investment plan; sister company Hanwha Ocean up over 12% on Canadian submarine contract expectations

The Fed’s First Minutes Under Warsh

Wednesday’s Fed minutes will be read for signs of how the committee is digesting a market that has decisively repriced away from rate cuts. The June 16-17 meeting was the first under Chairman Kevin Warsh, confirmed by the Senate earlier this year and sworn in by President Trump at a White House ceremony. The minutes will show whether the committee’s internal conversation reflected the same shift toward hikes the futures market has priced.

Newton’s mid-August target of 8,000 on the S&P 500 sat about 7% above last week’s close, per Fundstrat. Yardeni’s note frames the Fed repricing: the 1.5 rate hikes now implied by fed funds futures are a “sharp reversal” from the deep-cut pricing of the past three years. The minutes should show “how much of that repricing the committee actually endorses.” Friday’s U.S. payrolls print is the next data point on the calendar.

Frequently Asked Questions

What makes the upcoming Fed minutes different?

They cover the June 16-17 meeting, the first under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, who was confirmed by the Senate earlier this year and sworn in by President Trump at a White House ceremony. The committee voted 12-0 to hold the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.

What was the S&P 500’s all-time high?

7,609.78 on Tuesday, June 2, 2026, per Dow Jones market data. Last week’s close of 7,483.24 sat 1.66% below that record.

What is the S&P 500’s year-to-date performance through last week?

Up 637.74 points, or 9.32%, per Dow Jones market data.

How much has OPEC+ restored to global supply?

Around 940,000 barrels per day, per Westpac, since the OPEC+ supply increase process began, with the latest move tied to the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

How consistently has the S&P 500 risen on a weekly basis in 2026?

The index is up 12 of the past 14 weeks, per Dow Jones market data, with last week’s 1.8% rise the largest one-week point and percentage gain since the week ending May 8, 2026.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Market figures and forecasts are accurate as of the publication date and are subject to change. Consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.