SpaceX Shares Rise on First Unlock as Float Multiplies Ahead

SpaceX stock climbed 6.14% on Thursday to close near $114.92 after touching an intraday low of $105.11, even as up to 911.5 million shares became eligible for sale. That tranche more than doubled the public float that had traded since the June listing.

The bounce arrived one day after a solid earnings report failed to stop a 12% slide. It also landed against a backdrop of heavy short interest and a long list of further unlocks still ahead.

The session tested whether fresh supply would swamp demand or whether covering and restrained insider selling could offset each other. Thursday’s tape gave an early answer. Later unlock dates will keep asking the same question.

Thursday’s Tape Told Two Stories at Once

Coming into the session, SPCX sat about 20% below its $135 IPO price and more than 50% under the June 16 record high of $225.64. Pre-market chatter on X and among brokers framed the unlock as a near-certain flood.

Volume was heavy. The stock opened weak, printed the $105.11 low, then reversed as buyers absorbed the first wave of supply. By the close it stood well above the prior day’s $108.27 finish while the S&P 500 slipped 0.2%.

• Unlock size: up to 911.5 million shares, roughly 140% of the original post-IPO float
• Intraday range: $105.11 low to $115.75 high
• Close: roughly $114.92, +6.14%
• Context: down ~20% from IPO price entering the day

Barron’s Al Root noted that short covering appeared to overwhelm any immediate insider selling. The market had already priced a large part of the overhang in the weeks after the listing.

The path from the $105.11 low to the $115.75 high showed how quickly the narrative flipped once the first wave of eligible shares met actual bids. The close near $114.92 left the stock well clear of the prior day’s $108.27 finish and turned a feared unlock session into a net gain.

That outcome does not erase the remaining calendar. It does show that eligibility alone is not the same as forced selling on day one.

The Float Starts Small and Expands in Layers

SpaceX went public with an unusually thin free float. Roughly 555 million to 639 million shares were available after the offering, less than 5% of the roughly 13.6 billion shares outstanding. That scarcity helped fuel the early run to $225.

The company and its banks chose a staggered release instead of the classic single 180-day cliff. The first 20% of the main lockup block became eligible on the second full trading day after the Q2 earnings release.

Elon Musk’s roughly 6.4 billion shares (about 42% ownership) remain locked until one year after the IPO, into June 2027. Executive officers face longer restrictions as well. By the time the process finishes, the tradable supply multiplies several times over.

The thin starting float explains both the early spike to $225.64 and the sensitivity now that layers of stock are coming free. Each new tranche resets the supply baseline. Traders must reprice scarcity every time another block becomes eligible.

Because the design avoids a single cliff, no one session clears the full overhang. The market instead faces a sequence of tests spaced across 2026 and into mid-2027.

Earnings Beat Expectations Yet Shares Still Fell First

SpaceX reported results on August 4 that cleared the bar on nearly every line. Total revenue hit $7.8 billion, a 92% jump in second-quarter revenue from $4.1 billion a year earlier and well above the $6.8 billion consensus.

Adjusted EBITDA reached $3.5 billion, up 191%. The net loss narrowed to $541 million from $1.0 billion. Connectivity (Starlink) delivered $4.3 billion in revenue, up 66%, with 12.0 million subscribers at quarter-end, double the prior-year figure. Income from operations in that segment rose 79% to $1.7 billion.

The AI segment surprised on the upside too. It posted $2.56 billion in revenue (up 247%) and flipped to positive adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion after prior losses. Capex surged to $18.4 billion for the quarter as the company poured money into compute infrastructure. Cash and marketable securities stood at $100 billion with $47.5 billion in backlog.

• Starlink subscribers doubled year-over-year to 12 million
• AI adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $1.1 billion
• New cloud agreements added $14.1 billion of contracted sales
• CFO Bret Johnsen pointed to a path toward $100 billion annualized revenue by year-end

The stock still dropped about 8.5-12% the next day. Analysts and brokers attributed the reaction more to lockup positioning than to the numbers themselves. Full details and the webcast sit on the company’s SpaceX investor relations updates page.

Cash at $100 billion and a $47.5 billion backlog give the company room to keep funding the buildout even while the float expands. The earnings print itself was not the problem. The calendar was.

Who Can Sell and Who Is Already Short

Employees and many early investors can begin trimming. Venture funds face their own return clocks. Founders Fund, Craft Ventures, Valor Equity and Alphabet were among the pre-IPO backers. Some may stay long. Others may rotate into private names such as Anthropic, OpenAI or Anduril.

Broker Robert Hackel of R.F. Lafferty called it “the most talked-about lockup in the history of IPO lockups” and said pre-IPO holders were eager to realize gains and diversify. Renaissance Capital’s Matt Kennedy noted the massive paper profits create a strong incentive to take money off the table.

This has to be the most talked-about lockup in the history of IPO lockups.

Robert Hackel, CEO of institutional brokerage R.F. Lafferty & Co., told Reuters.

On the other side sit the shorts. S3 Partners estimated 219.3 million shares sold short as of late July, about 34% of the then-float and worth roughly $24.6 billion. That position grew more than fivefold in a month. Shorts can use the new supply to cover without chasing the price higher, or they can get squeezed if actual selling stays light and institutions step in.

Gabriel Shahin of Falcon Wealth Planning said his contacts among SpaceX insiders showed little eagerness to sell. “They’re long-term believers,” he reported. Still, every subsequent unlock date is expected to add turbulence.

The mix of eager venture sellers, patient insiders, and a large short base creates opposing flows on every unlock day. Which side dominates will vary with price, volume, and how much of each eligible block actually hits the tape.

Earlier Lockups Offer a Rough Baseline

Typical IPO lock-up periods last 90 to 180 days. Academic and market studies find average price drops of roughly 1% to 3% around expiration, with volume spikes. Some research shows the effect is temporary; others note larger moves when venture-backed firms dominate the seller list.

Facebook’s 2012 unlock and Rivian’s 2022 expiration both produced sharp follow-through weakness. Tesla’s early post-IPO lockup in 2010 saw a roughly 15% decline after a large block became free. Those episodes involved smaller relative supply increases than SpaceX faces.

SpaceX’s design spreads the pain. One day cannot clear the overhang. Volume in the coming sessions and any Form 4 filings will show how much is actually changing hands versus simply becoming eligible.

The historical averages of 1% to 3% offer only a loose guide when the first tranche alone more than doubles the float. Prior cases still matter as reference points for how long weakness can linger after a large block opens.

Short Covering Meets Fresh Eligible Supply

The late-July short base of 219.3 million shares, about 34% of the then-float and worth roughly $24.6 billion, set up a mechanical bid under the first unlock. Covering can absorb shares that would otherwise press the price lower.

That dynamic appeared to play out on Thursday. The stock reversed from $105.11 and closed near $114.92 even as up to 911.5 million shares became eligible. Barron’s Al Root pointed to short covering as the force that overwhelmed immediate insider selling.

The same short interest can cut both ways on later dates. If selling stays light, shorts who remain exposed risk a squeeze. If venture holders and employees press supply harder, shorts can cover into that flow and still keep pressure on the tape.

• Short interest: 219.3 million shares, ~34% of then-float
• Notional value: roughly $24.6 billion
• Growth: more than fivefold in a month
• Thursday close: $114.92 after a $105.11 low

Gabriel Shahin’s contacts among insiders showed little eagerness to sell, which favors the covering side for now. Venture return clocks and the comments from Robert Hackel and Matt Kennedy point the other way. Each unlock day will reveal which impulse is stronger.

Public Holders and Pre-IPO Investors Diverge

Public shareholders who bought near the highs or at the IPO price sit underwater. The stock entered Thursday about 20% below the $135 IPO price and more than 50% under the June 16 record high of $225.64. Pre-IPO holders remain deeply profitable even at current levels.

That gap shapes incentives. Early backers such as Founders Fund, Craft Ventures, Valor Equity and Alphabet can book large gains by trimming into strength or into unlock-day liquidity. Public buyers who entered near $225 or at the listing price need a sustained recovery before they are whole.

The original listing at a $1.75 trillion valuation set a high bar. Subsequent trading has tested that mark hard. Thursday’s bounce from $105.11 showed demand can still appear when covering and restrained selling align. It did not close the gap between the two holder groups.

As further tranches open, the asymmetry stays in place. Pre-IPO profits support selling pressure. Public underwater positions support caution. The float expansion has to clear both mindsets at once.

Months of Supply Still Sit on the Calendar

Another roughly 319 million shares can unlock as soon as August 12. Further 7% increments follow at set intervals. A larger 28% block arrives after third-quarter results. By year-end more than 4 billion shares could be free to trade. The final big wave, including Musk’s stake, waits until mid-2027.

1. August 12, 2026: roughly 319 million shares (next 7% block)
2. Further 70-135 day steps: additional ~319 million each at set intervals
3. After Q3 earnings: ~1.3 billion shares (28% block)
4. By year-end 2026: more than 4 billion shares potentially free to trade
5. Mid-2027: final wave, including Musk’s roughly 6.4 billion shares

That schedule means the market must keep absorbing potential supply while it digests Starship progress, Starlink mobile rollout, AI compute contracts and any further capital raises. The original listing itself, SpaceX’s June IPO at a $1.75 trillion valuation, already set a high bar that subsequent trading has tested hard.

Public shareholders who bought near the highs or at the IPO price sit underwater. Pre-IPO holders remain deeply profitable even at current levels. That asymmetry shapes every future unlock day.

Thursday’s bounce proved the first shock can be absorbed when covering meets restrained selling. The second-order question is whether the same balance holds as the float multiplies again and again through 2027. Fundamentals will eventually dominate. Until then the unlock calendar remains part of the price.