FAO Food Price Index Rises Despite a Near-Record Harvest

The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points in September, its highest level since November 2022. The gauge of monthly change in world food prices rose 1.5% from a revised August reading of 134.0. Sugar, wheat and maize led the move after weather shocks and stalled grain ships, and the reading is still 15.1% below the March 2022 peak.

FAO still ranks the 2026 cereal crop as the second largest ever recorded. Chief economist Maximo Torero said that if the squeeze holds, it will reach consumer food prices, above all in countries that import both food and energy.

The @FAO Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points in September, up 1.5% from August and 5.8% from a year ago.

Higher cereal, sugar and vegetable oil quotations outweighed declines in meat and dairy prices.https://t.co/hbQikhGj3v

— FAO Newsroom (@FAOnews) October 2, 2026

A Four-Year High, 15.1% Short of the 2022 Peak

Crop prices did the lifting. Cereals, vegetable oils and sugar all rose from August, while meat fell and dairy barely moved. That split is the tell. The shock is in grains, cooking oil and sweeteners, not in the livestock complex that eased on heavy export supply.

Against last September the index is up 5.8%. It has not returned to the war-shock peak of March 2022. Daily wheat quotes also softened late in the month, which is a reminder that a monthly average can look firmer than the tape at month-end.

THE SEPTEMBER PRINT

• The index: The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points in September, the highest since November 2022.
• Monthly move: The index rose 1.5% from a revised August level of 134.0 points.
• Yearly gap: The reading stood 5.8% above September 2025 and 15.1% below the March 2022 peak.
• The split: Cereals, oils and sugar rose, while meat declined and dairy slipped 0.1%.

The agency released the figures in Rome on 2 October. The next print is due on 6 November.

Global Cereal Output Remains the Second-Largest on Record

The price jump is not a story of empty bins. FAO left its 2026 cereal production forecast broadly unchanged this month at 2,979 million tonnes, 2.1% below last year’s all-time high and still the second largest harvest on record. Wheat was revised up. Coarse grains were revised down. The net crop is still huge.

World wheat output is now put at 813.9 million tonnes after a 3.2 million tonne upgrade, mainly from better weather in Australia, though the crop is still 3.3% smaller than last year. Coarse grains are pegged at 1,612 million tonnes, down 1.3%, after heat and dryness cut maize prospects in the European Union and the United States. Rice is forecast at 552.5 million tonnes, milled, 2.4% below the 2025/26 record. India accounts for much of that cut, after patchy monsoon rains reduced plantings and tightened irrigation water in southern states that grow a large share of the off-season crop.

FAO 2026 CEREAL CROP

A 2.1% smaller crop from a record base does not, on its own, explain a 5.1% monthly leap in the cereal price index. The missing piece is movement, not tonnage in the field.

Why Wheat Prices Jumped 6.3% in September

World wheat prices rose 6.3% from August to their highest level since August 2023 because Black Sea logistics seized up and dry weather hung over parts of North America ahead of winter-wheat planting. Importers had to chase other origins. Maize rose 5.6% to its highest level in more than three years, after weaker U.S. yields, thinner Brazilian export supply, Black Sea trouble and uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which kept fuel, fertilizer and freight costs in the price.

The cereal index averaged 122.8 points, up 5.1% on the month and 17.2% on the year. Sorghum jumped 13.7% and barley 3.9% with the rest of the feed-grain complex, helped by talk of larger Chinese sorghum purchases after trade discussions with the United States. The all-rice index rose 1.4% as Indica prices firmed on weather worries and tighter seasonal supply.

Russia and Ukraine together grow about 14 percent of the world’s wheat and a much larger share of what actually trades. A Council on Foreign Relations analysis puts Russia at about 21% of global wheat exports and Ukraine at about 6%, and treats the Black Sea as a chokepoint for some 17% of the world’s traded grain. Ukrainian officials have said river, rail and truck routes can take only 50 to 55% of seaport capacity. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the squeeze “like Hormuz, only agricultural.”

THE BLACK SEA GRAIN STOPPAGE

1. July 2026: Fighting along the southern maritime axis shuts Black Sea ports at the start of harvest season.
2. August 2026: Strikes idle major Russian terminals at Novorossiysk, and Ukrainian deep-sea loadings stay severely constrained.
3. September 2026: Wheat prices post a 6.3% monthly rise, the highest since August 2023, as buyers shift to other origins.
4. 2 October 2026: FAO publishes the cereal index at 122.8 points and cuts its world cereal trade forecast on Black Sea limits.

Sunflower oil moved the other way. FAO said those prices fell for a third month on expectations of ample Black Sea supply, even as bad logistics capped how far they could drop. Grain that cannot leave a port and oilseed that still can are sitting in the same basin. Markets are pricing the route, not a single regional famine.

We are seeing a persistent and increasingly broad based build up in global commodity prices, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea combine with climate shocks, putting pressure on energy, transport and key food commodities. If sustained, these pressures will soon pass through to consumer food prices, especially in food and energy import dependent countries.

Maximo Torero, FAO chief economist, 2 October 2026 statement

Sugar’s Tightest Reading Since April 2025

Sugar posted the steepest monthly rise. The sugar index averaged 114.0 points, up 6.1% from August and 14.7% from a year earlier, its third monthly increase in a row and the highest reading since April 2025. FAO tied the rally to a tighter 2026/27 supply outlook, not to a single failed mill.

THE FOUR HITS ON SUGAR SUPPLY

• Thailand: Output is forecast lower, tightening exportable supply for the new cycle.
• India: Below-normal rainfall and a strengthening El Nino have raised doubts about the next crop.
• Brazil: Heavy rain in the Centre-South growing region slowed harvest work and supported world prices.
• European Union: A smaller beet area plus poor growing weather points to a weaker sugarbeet crop.

El Nino is the common weather thread. An AMIS feature carried with the FAO release notes that rice yields in an El Nino year typically run 1.0 to 1.5% below trend, with the extra risk concentrated in South and Southeast Asia. That is a yield nick, not a wipeout, and it is already in the sugar and rice tape.

Palm Oil Climbs as Sunflower Oil Falls

The vegetable oil index averaged 198.6 points, up 0.9% from August and 18.3% higher than a year earlier. Palm oil did the work, rising for a fourth month on strong import demand and dry weather in Southeast Asia. Soy oil and rapeseed oil were little changed, with soy still held up by biofuel demand. Sunflower oil, as noted, fell.

Meat and dairy were the offsets inside the headline index. The meat index averaged 127.9 points, down 1.1%, in line with a year earlier. Poultry prices dropped on heavy Brazilian export supply and weaker EU import demand after antimicrobial-related import rules took effect on 3 September. Pig meat also eased as supplies recovered in major exporters, including the EU after summer heat faded. Bovine prices were mixed: Australia weaker, Brazil firmer on U.S. demand. Ovine prices were broadly unchanged.

The dairy index averaged 119.1 points, down 0.1%. Cheese prices fell across major exporters, milk powder rose on Asian buying and tight prompt supply, and butter barely moved. The dairy index is still 19.1% below its level a year earlier, so the grocery shock, if it comes, will not arrive through butter and cheese first.

FAO SUB-INDICES IN SEPTEMBER

That table is why the headline can rise while a shopper’s meat counter looks calm. The pressure is in staples that import-dependent households buy every week: wheat flour, maize, rice, palm oil, sugar.

Who Pays First When Freight and Fertilizer Rise

Import-dependent countries meet this print in dollars, then again at the dock. A 6.3% rise in world wheat is only the first invoice. Freight, insurance and fertilizer move with Hormuz and the Black Sea, and a weaker local currency multiplies the same dollar price. Richer importers can draw stocks or switch origins. Poorer ones face a shorter list of choices: spend reserves, cut other spending, or let retail food prices run.

The index is not a grocery receipt. Pass-through takes weeks to months, and it is uneven. Bread, flour, cooking oil and sugar typically move before meat. Countries that already import fuel feel the same shipping shock twice, once in energy and once in food, which is the pairing Torero flagged. India sits on both sides of the ledger, as a sugar producer watching rainfall and as a rice grower whose southern irrigation is already tight.

Torero later wrote that global cereal supplies are sufficient for now, but shocks from Hormuz, the Black Sea, the Red Sea and El Nino are starting to create compound risks. That is the second-order point in one line. The grain exists. The route is the rationing device.

FAO Food Price Index rose 1.5% in September and 5.8% year on year. Cereal prices jumped 5.1% in one month. Global cereal supplies are sufficient for now, but shocks from Hormuz, the Black Sea, Red Sea and El Niño are starting to create compound risks. https://t.co/ohBjoSbJoO

— Maximo Torero (@MaximoTorero) October 2, 2026

World Cereal Trade Falls to 505.8 Million Tonnes

FAO now puts world cereal trade in 2026/27 at 505.8 million tonnes, down 3.5% from last season’s record and 0.7% below the September forecast. Wheat and maize shipments were cut because Black Sea routes stay constrained and alternative transport cannot take the full load. Kazakhstan’s wheat exports were raised. Russia and Ukraine were lowered. Rice trade is forecast to fall 2.2% in 2026.

Use is still edging up. World cereal utilization is forecast at 2,966 million tonnes, 0.1% above 2025/26, after a 4.1 million tonne upgrade. Maize use was cut 4.6 million tonnes, or 0.4%, on weaker feed demand in Egypt, the EU and the United States. Rice use is put at 559.1 million tonnes, up 0.7% on food demand. Ending stocks are forecast at 950.0 million tonnes, leaving a stocks-to-use ratio of 31.7%, a shade under last season’s 32.0%. The cupboard is not bare. The trade pipe is narrower.

The Agricultural Market Information System, hosted by FAO, said the same day that elevated freight rates and fertilizer costs, plus continued shipping trouble, are making the market harder to read. FAO will publish the next Food Price Index on 6 November. Until that print, the 31.7% stocks-to-use ratio is the buffer on paper, and the 3.5% cut in world cereal trade is the constraint already in the price.